Australia's floods and fires: Extreme weather Down Under may foreshadow events on a global scale.

A firefighter battles a wildfire in Perth, Australia.
At least 68 homes were lost in the 2011 blaze.


In early 2012 once-in-a-century floods submerged swaths of Great Britain and Ireland, causing some $1.52 billion in damages. Then in June record-high temperatures in Russia sparked wildfires that consumed 74 million acres of pristine Siberian taiga. Months after that, Hurricane Sandy pummeled seven countries, killing hundreds and running up an estimated $75 billion in damages. Just this week, a tornado of virtually unheard of size and ferocity tore through a small city in Oklahoma, leaving 24 people dead.

Each of these one-off traumas was bad enough, wreaking havoc, but in Australia such events seem to be becoming commonplace.

The Lucky Country has experienced a major spike in extreme weather in the past few years, with a string of devastating incidents just since January.

That has people wondering if the island continent is somehow a perfect bellwether for the Earth's changing climate. So scientists are bearing down on the problem with intensity, investigating Australia's increasingly violent weather patterns and trying to figure out what they might portend for the rest of the world as our climate changes.

So Hot Even the Summer Got Angry

The rough-hewn sandstone buildings perched atop Observatory Hill have been keeping an eye on Sydney Harbor since 1858. They've pretty much seen it all—from the installation of the city's first gaslights to the construction of the now iconic Sydney Opera House and Harbor Bridge.

But at 2:55 p.m. on January 18, 2013, meteorological equipment in the observatory registered something new: a read-out marking the hottest day in the city's history: 45.8°C (114.4°F).

Much of the continent was languishing in the grip of a heat wave that would break 123 heat and flood-related records in 90 days—among them, the hottest summer on record and the hottest seven consecutive days ever recorded.

At the time these statistical dramas, and their possible significance, paled against the imperative of not self-combusting on your walk from office to car.

At the Pink Roadhouse in the outback town of Oodnadatta—whose locals are legendary for the stoicism with which they have long dealt with living in Australia's hottest town—temperatures pushed so high that gasoline vaporized before it even made it into the fuel tank.


A wildfire crosses an Australian highway.


"The ground, the building, everything is so hot, you walk outside and you feel it's going to burn you," Lynnie Plate, the exhausted owner of the establishment, told a reporter at the time.

The national record of 50.7°C (123.2°F) set in Oodnadatta in January 1960 stayed intact, just barely.

Australians love their summer heat. They take particular joy in mocking British tourists for the magenta hue they often acquire after even a mild day at the beach.

Because winter and summer temperature variations aren't all that great in much of Australia, Aussies, unlike the Brits, are habitually accustomed to heat that might melt lesser mortals.

But when 8 of the 21 days in the last 102 years on which Australia averaged a high of more than 39°C (102°F) happened to occur in 2013, people weren't charmed.

The anomaly stood out. Numbers like those break through what climate scientists like David Jones, manager of climate monitoring prediction at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, call the "signal to noise" ratio.

"One of the first places on the planet where the global warming signal is easy to discern is actually Australia, because of this low temperature variability," Jones said. "And that's exactly what we're seeing. The Australian warming trend is very clearly apparent in our records. It pops out quite quickly from the background noise of weather patterns."

But just what does that breaking through the noise tell us? Apparently, it says not to expect things to calm down any time soon.

A Continent-Size Canary?

On January 26, before the heat wave was even over, the second round of devastating flooding since 2011 was battering Queensland.

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Oswald lashed the country's east coast, killing six people and costing about $2.5 billion in damages. Military helicopters were sent into the city of Bundaberg to evacuate stranded residents as the streets churned with water, debris, and sewage.



A wallaby stands on a hay bail, trapped by
rising flood waters in Queensland.

It could have been worse—in 2011 similar floods killed more than 30 people and chalked up a $2.4 billion tab.

Tropical cyclones have always been a reality of life here, but the sheer intensity of these storms shocked the country.

Once upon a time, once-in-a-century flooding meant just that, but these days the term seems to be shorthand for a really bad flood.

Higher ocean surface temperatures caused by the spiraling heat results in more evaporation. And an atmosphere loaded with water vapor means more and heavier rain.

Climate scientists have long been reluctant to link individual extreme weather events to climate change—something that's impossible to do with any scientific rigor.

They've also been loath to speak in the aggregate about a connection. That reluctance, however, is starting to disappear.

In early March the Australian government's climate change watchdog, the Climate Commission, released a bombshell of a report called "The Angry Summer."

The report explicitly connects Australia's recent spate of weather to climate change.

Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University Climate Change Institute and the report's author, reckoned that there was a one-in-five-hundred chance that natural variation had caused the recent extreme events.

Although Steffen still isn't willing to say that individual weather occurrences are the result of climate change, he suggests that collectively they do demonstrate a rapidly changing climate.

He believes Australia is a unique environment in which to watch the change because it is already such a naturally extreme place.

"We have such a range of different types of extreme events and climatic patterns that affect people," Steffen said. "Examples being obviously sea-level rise, because we're a coastal country; high-temperature events; bush fires; droughts and floods all at the same time.

"So you've got the basket of the worst types of extreme weather events all being fairly prominent in Australia."

The blistering 2013 heat wave started out in the parched, largely empty, red center of the continent and spread to the east coast.

Roughly 80 percent of Australians live within 30 miles of the coast, which means that all its major population centers are susceptible to sea-level rise, powerful storms, and flooding.



A man rescues a friend’s surfboard from a flooded
home in Newmarket, a suburb of Brisbane.
 

If the death tolls we've already seen from the 2011 and 2013 floods are any indication of things to come, there will be no shortage of suffering as sea levels creep ever higher and megastorms batter the populated coastlines.

"We seem to be on the firing line for a lot of this stuff," Steffen said. "I think in terms of what actually matters for people and infrastructure, we could be the canary in the coal mine."

This is the main reason so much scientific brainpower in research institutes across Australia is being directed at studying weather and climate there, with massive funding support from the federal government.

The Future Could Be Grim
If Australia's average temperatures rise by 0.6 to 1.5°C by 2030, and then by 1.0 to 
5.0°C by 2070, as predicted by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), extreme weather events may become the norm.

To Steffen, the lineup reads like a shopping list for an Australian apocalypse: blistering heat waves spanning the entire continent, less rainfall and more droughts in the south and southwest, uncertain rainfall in the north, less snow, many more fires, more storms with heavy rainfall, and more frequent and intense cyclones.

"The one-in-a-hundred-year flooding event is going to happen every year, or even a bit more often," Steffen said.

Soon after issuing its "Angry Summer" report, the Climate Commission issued a follow-up document: "The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather."

In the next ten years, it warns, Australians should expect more heat, bush fires, rainfall, droughts, and sea-level rise.

It's hard to think of another country on Earth that has to deal with such a range of extreme weather events.

Even the United States, the place that scientists say is most comparable to Australia, has the twin saving graces of having neither a vast interior desert to trap heat nor ocean waters all around it to intensify the impact of rising seas and superpowered storms on population centers.

Unfortunately for Australians, the Climate Commission fully expects to have a decade of extreme weather events to study on their behalf. "Stabilizing the climate," the commissioners wrote, "is like turning around a battleship—it cannot be done immediately given its momentum.

"When danger is ahead you must start turning the wheel now. Any delay means that it is more and more difficult to avert the future danger."

www.NationalGeographic.com 24.5.13

Reports find dam manuals were followed in 2013 - unlike the 2011 Brisbane River flood disaster

Wivenhoe Dam

THE operators of southeast Queensland's dams complied with flood manuals during the 2013 disasters.

Four reports have been published into the operation of the Wivenhoe, Somerset and North Pine dams.

Water Supply Minister Mark McArdle says rainfall in January was the second largest on record since Wivenhoe was built.

He says legislation passed by the government before the floods hit helped operators make early decisions to reduce the levels of the Wivenhoe and North Pine dams.

Their capacity was dropped to 88 per cent two days before the floodwaters hit.

"Without this ability we may have had a different outcome for Brisbane, Ipswich, and the communities along the North Pine River," he said.

Mr McArdle says the reports are an important step to reassure people that the dams are managed well following the devastating floods two years ago.

 

www.HeraldSun.com.au

Independent advisory council to advise on flood mitigation manuals for southeast Queensland

The Newman Government has taken another step to strengthen Queensland’s flood resilience by announcing an independent Advisory Council to provide advice on flood mitigation manuals used by flood engineers during flood events at Wivenhoe and Somerset dams and North Pine Dam.

Water Supply Minister Mark McArdle said the establishment of the Ministerial Advisory Council for Flood Mitigation Manuals was a recommendation of the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry’s final report.

“This Advisory Council has a critical role as the manuals guide operational decisions about water release rates during a flood event – when a dam exceeds its full supply level and it is necessary to open its gates to release excess water,” he said.

“Importantly, this Advisory Council, which will meet for the first time today, consists of qualified, independent individuals with no involvement in the development of the revised flood mitigation manuals.”

Mr McArdle said Seqwater would prepare and submit revised flood mitigation manuals for Wivenhoe and Somerset dams and North Pine Dam, for approval, before the next wet season.

“As responsible Minister, I need to consider how competing objectives are balanced, including minimising downstream disruption for small flood events and protecting urban areas during large flood events,” he said.

“This process enables me to draw on the engineering and hydrological expertise of the Advisory Council to make evidence-based decisions when approving a manual.”

Mr McArdle said the four SEQ councils directly impacted by flood operations at these dams were invited to provide a representative and to date Ipswich City Council and Moreton Bay Regional Council have done so.

“Brisbane City Council and Somerset Regional Council are yet to nominate a representative to ensure the advice I receive is relevant to their local government areas.”

Mr McArdle said Advisory Council Chair Rowena McNally brings extensive knowledge of the water industry from her work on the Mount Isa and Gladstone Water boards, in addition to a wealth of experience from her work as an accredited arbitrator, facilitator and lawyer.

The Ministerial Advisory Council for Flood Mitigation Manuals includes:

Ms Rowena McNally, Independent Chair
Mr William (Bill) Weeks – Director (Hydraulics), Department of Transport and Main Roads and Registered Professional Engineer Queensland
Mr Geoff Garrett (Queensland Chief Scientist)
Mr Carl Wulff – Chief Executive Officer (Ipswich City Council)
Mr Steve Roso – Principal Engineer (Moreton Bay Regional Council).

Minister for Energy and Water Supply
The Honourable Mark McArdle
2 May 2013

A grassroots movement to help flood victims and other families



Helping hands: Loading boxes for the
Easter delivery to indigenous families
affected by Brisbane's 2011 floods
are (from left) Uncle David Miller,
Aunty Judy Brown, Josephite
Sister Kay McPadden, Ravina
Waldren and Bernadette Jeffrey.

Murri Ministry is now in its 21st year of helping Indigenous Catholics in Brisbane archdiocese. PAUL DOBBYN spoke to some of the key figures in the ministry

LATE last year, members of an Aboriginal family grieving over the death of a fimly member in custody met with Murri Ministry's Ravina Waldren at Justice Place in Wooloongabba.

Around a large table, over cups of tea and cakes provided by the ministry, the family attempted to reach agreement about a burial place for their loved one.

Unfortunately, Ravina said such meetings which often involve mediation, have become a frequent part of the ministry's calling.

"This constant work with grieving families was certainly not envisaged when the ministry was set up by the archdiocese through Centacare 20 years ago," Ravina said.

"But because we're working ecumenically, we're involved in the burial of, on average, three local Aboriginal community members a week.

"This includes everything from the printing of funeral booklets through to the painting of the caskets of the deceased, sometimes within jail.

"I know of no other organisation in Brisbane which does this important work."

Typically, meetings like this can be difficult - the Aboriginal way is to seek approval of extended family members to make such decisions, Ravina said.

"Should the deceased be buried 'in country' or is it more practical to bury them closer to home?"

In the case of the Aboriginal man who had died in custody at Woodford Correctional Centre of heart complications, the matter was even more complex.

"It was sad enough," Ravina said "that the deceased aged 47 years had been in jail for over 30 years"

"He went into jail as a young boy of only 17 and spent the best part of that time in jail.

"What made the situation even sadder was the Department of Corrective Services indicated they would only pay for a so-called pauper's funeral.

"This would involve the use of one of several designated funeral homes and cemeteries around Brisbane.

"The problem was many of his family wanted him to be buried back in country, in this case Cherbourg.

"If you look at it, he'd been in jail for about 30 years for an estimated cost of $1.2 million.

"What was another $8000 to have him buried where his family wanted?

"Also in that 30 years, he would have given a fair bit in community service as well."

Ravina said lower Aboriginal life expectancy due to diseases such as diabetes and a much higher than average suicide rate, especially among the young, was responsible for the ministry's increasing role as funeral arranger.

She said her involvement in such emotional events inevitably took a toll on her and fellow ministry workers - Josephite Sister Kay McPadden, Bernadette Jeffrey and Elder David Miller.

Also, because of the crucial nature of their work, Murri Ministry workers are always on call.

"You find once you're working here that you don't have much spare time," Ravina said.

"It's not only a 9 to 5 job, it's ministry and that's the difference."

Sr Kay has a long relationship with the Aboriginal community stretching back to her work with the Aboriginal and Islander Catholic Council in Inala in the late 1970s.

David is frequently seen presiding over the Welcome to Country ceremonies at Catholic events throughout the archdiocese.

Bernadette provides the administrative backbone to the ministry.

Brisbane priest Fr Gerry Hefferan has been chaplain to the ministry since its early days.

Many Elders from the Aboriginal community also come in as volunteers.

In their conversation with The Catholic Leader, Ravina and Sr Kay outlined some of Murri Ministry's other activities.

Ravina described the ministry as "grassroots".

"It provides pastoral and spiritual assistance, consistent with Aboriginal culture, tradition and insights within the community," Sr Kay said.

"Murri Ministry is also involved in community liaison work which includes community / home visits and referrals.

"Other activities include awareness raising, empowering local communities, sacramental preparations, taking part in Murri celebrations and working towards reconciliation."

A list of some of activities already carried out by the ministry to mind as Sr Kay spoke.

There was the ministry's annual involvment in NAIDOC Week celebrations in Brisbane archdiocese and their visits to schools for such events as the anniversary of National Apology Day.

Then there were campaigns with Brisbane's Catholic Justice and Peace Commission to press for Government action to address on-going Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths in custody.

One-off events also came to mind such as the ministry's sponsorship of young Aboriginal man Marlon Riley to dance before Pope Benedict in Rome at the canonisation of St Mary of the Cross MacKillop.

Also the food drops to those impacted by the disastrous 2011 floods including the nine Aboriginal families forced to live under one roof at Goodna.

Now into its 21st year, the ministry is focused futurewards.

On May 27, an immersion day to Cherbourg for All Hallows' students will give them an in-depth experience of this community.

The students will be taken to the Ration Shed, the community's history centre.

They'll learn how the Aboriginal people lined up to receive flour, sugar and cheap meat cuts called "flaps" at the shed.

The students will also have a chance to talk to locals and get first hand information on Aboriginal history.

Sr Kay is involved in a history project to record the lives of Aboriginal Catholics in the Cherbourg and Stradbroke Island communities.

Given life expectancy for Aboriginal males is around 54 and about 65 for women, she spoke of "a real sense of urgency" in completing the project.

"(ACU) Academic Dr Stefano Girola is helping me," she said.

"The project comprises writings, film and photos. The theme is how faith has been carried on.

"Cherbourg's little chapel or church, St Peter Claver, was 50 years old last November.

"But before that Aboriginal Catholics were already active in the community. For example, certain older woman were allowed to go into Murgon to Church for many years."

Ravina and Sr Kay said the Church had come a long way in its relationship with Aboriginal people but there were opportunities to do much more in Brisbane archdiocese.

"We should have something identifiable as Aboriginal in the cathedral and precinct," Ravina said. "For example, Beenleigh's church has a garden of this kind."

Ravina said she was astonished there was no mention of February's National Apology Day anniversary when she went to Mass.

"I thought, Wow, this is amazing to overlook such an important event," she said.

"To us it is very important to acknowledge this moment in history which is also so very much a part of Catholic history." Sr Kay said "any sorry we say is so accepted".

"People might say: Why keep saying it? ... well we haven't made proper restitution yet.

"In some cases, it can take a lifetime to restore a proper relationship with those we have offended.

"That's why the Church's work through Murri Ministry is so important."

www.CatholicLeader.com.au

Flood sequel: Time behind bars for double flood fraud and driving disqualified

A MAN who claimed nearly $2000 worth of flood benefits he wasn't entitled to, and drove disqualified while already on a suspended sentence for the same offence will be behind bars for three months.

Raymond Radunz, 29, pleaded guilty to three counts of fraud and one count of driving while disqualified.

The court heard Radunz was on bail for flood fraud charges from the 2011 floods when he committed two counts of fraud following the flood earlier this year.

On February 9, 2011 in Ipswich, Radunz claimed $170 of flood assistance, fraudulently using a false address.

The next day he used his real address to claim a further $170.

Two years later, while on bail for those charges, Radunz used the 2013 flood to again defraud the system.

He legally claimed $900 of flood assistance for himself, his partner and three children, on Wednesday, February 6, in Ipswich.

The next day he claimed another $900 of flood benefits in Beenleigh, and again in Moorooka on Friday, February 8.

Across the two floods he defrauded the government a total of $1970.

Radunz, who has never held a licence, also pleaded guilty to driving while disqualified.

He had already been banned from driving until August 2015 and had served time in prison for driving while disqualified.

Magistrate Virginia Sturgess said due to his history of driving offences and disregarding court orders the disqualified driving charges were more severe than the fraud, despite the amount of money he had defrauded from the community.

Radunz was sentenced to nine months prison for disqualified driving, and three months in prison for each of the three fraud charges, to be served concurrently with a parole release date in three months.

www.QT.com.au  

2011 Brisbane River flood class action: Thousands registered, but no timeline for court proceedings

A map showing which parts of southeast
Queensland should not have flooded (in green).
Yellow marks parts that would have got 6 inches or more.

 

Almost 5000 people have registered for a class action over the 2011 floods but there is still no timeline for when it could be launched.

Maurice Blackburn, the law firm behind the class action, has had just under 2500 sign up to the proposed lawsuit and 4800 people have registered their interest.

There are hopes the class action could yield up to $500 million for people whose homes flooded – something Maurice Blackburn argues should not have happened if Wivenhoe Dam had been operated properly.

"Work on the class action is building strongly, and as in any lawsuit of this size, there is much to do to ensure that the evidence is properly in place before we file," principal at Maurice Blackburn Lawyers, Damian Scattini, said.

"We now have over 4800 registrants, and will be looking to hold more public meetings soon to update people.

"The action will be filed following completion of the work required for the case to be undertaken over the coming months.”

The law firm has not spoken publicly about the class action since it unveiled flood maps that it claimed showed the houses and properties which should not have flooded.

It later admitted it would not be use the maps in any court case and they had been used to publicise the case.

The law firm held a series of public meetings last year to drum up interest and is planning to hold another series in the coming months.

The action is being funded by IMF which is expecting to invest about $10 million but it is conditional on enough flood victims being recruited with a certain dollar amount of damage done to their homes.

www.BrisbaneTimes.com.au - 24.4.13

 

Proposed Queensland flood levy collected via rates may cause backlash

Flooding at Goodna January 2011

The Queensland councils watchdog fears a ratepayer backlash if a proposed flood levy to protect against natural disaster impacts is collected through rates notices.

Local Government Association of Queensland President Margaret de Wit said the proposed levy required close scrutiny because past experience had taught local governments to be sceptical of such proposals, pointing an ambulance levy in 2002.

She said the association would need to see more details and consult member councils before they could commit to it.

"We wouldn't endorse that without knowing how much the levy is going to be, how is it going to be imposed?" she said.

"Is it going to be a flat rate across the board? Is it going to be based on property values? Is it going to be commercial and residential?

"What about indigenous communities? The indigenous councils are a different category in that most of them don't have rateable properties, so ... are they going to be exempted from the levy.

"It is unfortunate at a time when councils are drawing up budgets. We don't know whether it's going to be on rates bills or electricity or water. it leaves us in a position where it's difficult to comment."

Ms de Wit said back to two massive flood disasters in two years meant there was a "dire situation" and funds were needed to guard against future impacts.

She said it was an idea worth considering but there were a lot of unanswered questions.

"There is a need to have a reliable source of funds to deal with the disasters that seem to be happening a lot more often," she said.

"Queensland councils have put in applications for over $1 billion worth of funding to help with their flood resilience projects.

"The Federal Government is only offering $80 million of more than $1 billion so there's a massive shortfall there for councils trying to rebuild their infrastructure so it won't continually be flooded or damaged in disasters."

Ms de Wit said if the Federal Government believed they had poured money in already, they did not understand "the magnitude of this problem".

Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk said the proposed tax should come with a guarantee of a limited shelf-life, otherwise the levy was just a "backdoor way" of implementing a household tax recommended in the Costello Audit.

She said the local government minister's suggestion collecting $1 billion over five years would 'make a good start' suggested "a big new tax in concrete" under the guise of flood repairs.

"If it does, who knows how much Queenslanders will be hit," she said.

"Mr (Tim) Costello estimated that for every $100 tax levied the government would raise $200 million.

"It is uncanny that the Newman Government is now talking about a new tax raising an estimated $1 billion over five years -or $200 million a year."

Transport and Main Roads Minister Scott Emerson said the levy was up for discussion but no decision had been made thus far.

"Communities very badly hit, like Gympie and Bundaberg, like Rockhampton, they are crying out to make sure that we not only rebuild but rebuild better and that is why resilience is so important," he said.

EARLIER: The Federal Treasurer says he is puzzled by Queensland's proposal to impose a levy on ratepayers to pay for flood mitigation measures.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the Commonwealth had provided Queensland with $6 billion over recent years for flood recovery, including $3 billion which was yet to be spent.

"So I am somewhat puzzled as to why they would now turn around and seek to impose an additional tax on Queenslanders for the floods when we have given such significant money to Queensland over recent years including $3 billion still sitting in an account, unspent," he told reporters in Brisbane.

Comment has been sought from the Treasury Department about what the $3 billion relates to.

A report in the Courier Mail stated the Newman Government was considering raising about $1 billion over four or five years through an extra charge on household bills to fund new levees, dams and move flood-prone infrastructure out of harm's way.

Local Government, Community Recovery and Resilience Minister David Crisafulli is holding a press conference on Friday morning to respond to the report.

Asked about the proposal, Mr Swan said Australians had already contributed to a temporary levy following the 2010/2011 natural disasters to pay for recovery assistance.

"Now the Queensland Government is seeking to say, almost retrospectively, 'I want to raise some more money' which the Federal Government has already given the $6 billion of which $3 billion is unspent," he said.

The Queensland Government last month accused the Commonwealth of withholding $725 million in disaster recovery funding.

Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls said the money, which was meant to reimburse the State Government for paying out assistance to councils and flood victims, was withheld because certain projects funded had not been verified with audit requirements.

Mr Nicholls said at the time to expect councils with thousands of kilometres of roads to have pre-flood photos of every "culvert, causeway and street sign was ludicrous".

But the Federal Treasury confirmed in April the money had been paid back in May, 2012, and the issue was with Queensland's Auditor-General refusing to tick off Mr Nicholls' claim the money was spent on reconstruction efforts.

www.IpswichAdvertiser.com.au

Protecting Coastal Cities From Rising Seas

Rising sea levels threaten some of the world's largest megacities. With billions of dollars and the security of millions of people at risk, the time to act is now.

Vanishing coastlines are a major test for government action. For many cities, especially those in nations that have made incremental progress on national climate change policy, and even those like Venice that have grappled with a rise in water levels for decades, the time to act is now.
 

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in 2007 that global sea levels would rise between 8 inches and 2 feet over the next century. But thanks to persistently high air and sea temperatures over the past six years, glaciers are melting, polar ice caps are shrinking, and ice is being lost from the continental sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica at a faster rate than anticipated. Combining these new developments with the expected thermal expansion, scientists writing for Environmental Research Letters anticipate that global sea levels will rise between 12 inches and 3 feet over the next century—a 60 percent increase over the IPCC model.

 

That means the coastlines around more than two-thirds of the world’s largest megacities and the sprawl that surrounds them are disappearing much faster than predicted. With millions of urbanites’ security at risk, the consequences of not taking preventive measures go far beyond a sinking Piazza San Marco. Warmer, higher oceans dramatically increase the risk of frequent extreme weather events, damaging floods, and storm surges. Recent storms like Hurricane Sandy on America’s East Coast, with damages totaling over $50 billion for the entire region, and the 2008 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, with a death toll that climbed to nearly 140,000 lives, demonstrate the varied and damaging repercussions of sea-level rise all too clearly.

 

Residences, transportation infrastructure, schools, hospitals, industry, and commercial areas, among other valuable urban assets, will face billions of dollars in climate-related damages over the coming decades.
 

Cities at Economic and Ecological Risk

From Ephesus, Turkey, to Mumbai, India, urban settlements along the sea have been important concentrations of cultural, economic, and population growth for millennia. Today, some of the world’s largest megacities and suburbs, with growing populations of more than 10 million, are also those most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Over the next half century, urban coastal communities around the world will face a new reality of dangerously amplified security risks, loss of life, and economic destruction from climate-change-induced flooding and storm surges.

 

Kolkata, India, for instance, is expected to contain more than 14 million people in locations vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased flooding by 2070, a sevenfold increase over its exposed population of 1.9 million today. Sea-level rise will jeopardize not only the homes and livelihoods of those 14 million people but also—and perhaps most importantly—their basic safety.

 

But Kolkata is not the exception—it’s the norm. Most of the top ten port cities with the largest number of people exposed to coastal flooding are growing and industrializing Asian cities (see table 1). Collectively, they are home to a total of nearly 66.4 million people and have combined future exposed assets of more than $19 trillion (see table 2).

 

 

With 100 cities generating 25 percent of global GDP, a number that the McKinsey Global Institute anticipates will grow to at least 35 percent by 2025, sea-level rise not only threatens the productivity of many huge cities it also jeopardizes the health and stability of the entire world market. A joint report from the World Wildlife Fund and Allianz SE determined that a midcentury global sea-level rise of 20 inches, with an additional 6 inches in some localized areas along the northeast U.S. coast, could jeopardize assets worth close to $7.4 trillion.

 

This figure only accounts for the assets located in one region of a single country. Imagine the figure for assets exposed across the United States, or, more dauntingly, worldwide.
 

Planning for Environmental Protection and Economic Sustainability

To help stave off these potentially devastating outcomes, coastal cities and communities should align comprehensive climate protection with economic development strategies. New York City, one of the world’s largest economic engines, is doing just that. PlaNYC began in 2007 as an economic development initiative, but when it became clear that the city would experience significant future impacts from climate change, the plan was transformed. Now it is a cutting-edge example of a city climate plan.

 

By pursing a climate-protection plan that includes economic goals, PlaNYC was able to overcome the political opposition many cities face when attempting to enact policies to safeguard the climate. To help protect the assets at risk in New York City, PlaNYC laid a framework to coordinate and prioritize the city’s operations and infrastructure investments with the inclusion of climate change estimates and risk assessments. The plan updated codes and standards for flood protection, which had implications for city maps and property insurance, with good results.

 

Housing developments designed to conform to PlaNYC benchmarks, such as Arverne by the Sea in the Rockaways, Brooklyn, experienced less damage from Hurricane Sandy than older, adjacent developments that were developed before the establishment of such guidelines, according to preliminary studies conducted by staff on the mayor’s Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency in response to the storm. The elevation of the Rockaway Peninsula is zero feet above sea level, making it vulnerable to flooding. Because PlaNYC anticipated storm surges as a result of more extreme storms, projects developed after the launch of PlaNYC required buildings to be set further away from the beach, built higher off the ground, and only approved if master plans included additional natural barriers, such as sand bars, between the developments and the water.

 

By contrast, other coastal communities seem to be in a holding pattern. The Chesapeake Bay area in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States is one example. It includes several medium-sized cities (Baltimore, Annapolis, Washington, DC, and the Portsmouth-Norfolk military complex in Tidewater, Virginia) and currently faces sea levels that are rising at twice the speed of the global average. This endangers not only these urban areas but also 66 percent of the region’s commercial fisheries, 90 percent of the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, and dozens of other irreplaceable natural resources and wildlife habitats.

 

Although ad hoc action has been taken to restore beaches in the area, primarily through sand replenishment schemes, these alone are not enough to safeguard both the region’s wildlife and its economy. The Chesapeake Bay area and other politically sluggish coastal communities must enact stronger policies that both foster economic development and protect the climate. In the absence of a broader coastal protection mandate, this type of local action is necessary to secure a financially and economically sound future for coastal communities.
 

Proactive and Comprehensive Approaches

Broadly speaking, all cities should align comprehensive plans to protect the climate with economic development strategies. But the specifics for each locality will vary. Each needs to develop and implement an adaption strategy customized for its unique experience with sea-level rise. This type of customization is necessary because climate models, satellite data, and hydrographic observations demonstrate that sea levels are not rising uniformly around the world. While some regions may need to adapt to a rise several times as high as the global mean, others may have to adapt to a drop in sea level.

 

Comprehensive, context-specific coastal planning engages local authorities to advance adaptation measures that respond to local threats and manage the ecological risks that substantial sea-level rise poses to the existing human and natural environment. Comprehensive plans for coastal communities identify economic assets, offer an opportunity to bolster economic development that is aligned with coastal protection, and ultimately secure the financial survival of these communities in the face of future climate risks.

 

These plans must prepare communities for both current and future climate risks. One way to achieve that is to include sea-level-rise adaptation and mitigation measures in a community’s vision. Sea-level rise, and the extreme weather events it induces, is an immediate but continuously evolving danger that requires both short- and long-term action, including supporting resiliency efforts that individual households and businesses can undertake in the near term and mandating resiliency in infrastructure planning for the long haul.
 

Getting Information to Consumers

Sea-level rise can be devastating to individual livelihoods, as illustrated by the recent victims of Hurricane Sandy. Distributing practical information to consumers and helping them with implementation is an effective short-term policy to protect community members and their local economy from immediate threats. Such information can help homeowners protect their investments and prepare for emergencies that they may face in the near future. This type of immediate adaptation can help secure community members today while they wait for longer-term policy changes to have an effect.

 

Harden Up, a website in Queensland, Australia, facilitates such immediate action. It provides practical advice to consumers to make current development, retrofitting, and reconstruction projects as resilient as possible to flooding, inundation, and other effects of rising sea levels. It also provides step-by-step technical assistance along the way. For example, homeowners in flood-prone areas are not only encouraged to build with resilient materials like fiber cement sheets, stone products, steel, hardwood, and glass blocks, they are also shown how to do so. Beyond creating their own plans, participants have also used the portal to share insurance, property, and resilience preparation advice with other vulnerable households. Since the Harden Up project was launched, just under 10,000 coastal households have created disaster-resilient plans to prepare for the current and forthcoming local consequences of climate change.
 

The Backbone of All Plans: Zoning

Climate-intelligent zoning forms the backbone of all longer-term comprehensive coastal planning. Zoning provides the legal framework to govern the use and future development of coastal land, and overlay zoning allows for special zoning districts based on ecological, economic, or social sensitivity. The use of both zoning and overlay zoning provides the necessary foundation for all other policy and technological tools used in a coastal zone management strategy. Resilient design and building code requirements are then tailored to the land uses set forth in zoning.

 

Zoning schemes use a strict management system of land-use decisions to control commercial, residential, industrial, and agricultural construction. In Cape Town, South Africa, for instance, each zone is assigned specific regulatory requirements based on land use that include resilient building designs, setbacks that lay out the distance development must be from shorelines, and natural buffers. Additional overlay-zoning regulations based on identified vulnerabilities and floodplains are then superimposed on the baseline plan. Cape Town provides a good example of an effective coastal zone management strategy based on an intelligent, intricate scheme of zoning and overlay-zoning regulations that could be applied to a range of geographic contexts. Further, the city’s plans are updated continually to ensure that they correspond to an evolving physical and socioeconomic environment, which is an effective practice that should be replicated.

 

This type of strategy requires a proactive government that is willing to plan and implement measures in advance to preemptively protect the region from the negative consequences and hazards of sea-level rise.
 

Soft Armoring Makes a Hard Difference

Whereas zoning lays the foundation for all protection mechanisms, specifying man-made barriers like seawalls or environmental buffers like wetland protection in comprehensive planning provides additional longer-term physical fortification to coastal economies.

 

Coastal cities that have long-existing communities and assets in areas that are already eroding, such as Rotterdam in the Netherlands, use both hard- and soft-armoring techniques to enhance flood protection. Hard armoring involves building defensive infrastructure, like engineered seawalls, while soft-armoring strategies include wetland restoration, sand replenishment, and living shorelines.

 

Because hard armor can block sediment from replenishing eroded areas, resulting in dry beaches, severe changes to the marine habitats, and the loss of intertidal areas, the combination of hard- and soft-armoring strategies can lessen negative environmental impacts. Rotterdam combines Maeslantkering, an enormous storm-surge barrier and high-tech water management system, with soft strategies like widening rivers, reinforcing the coastline with sand, and protecting vital wetlands to create a fully integrated network.

 

The comprehensive Rotterdam Climate Initiative has set the goal of fully climate-proofing the city by 2025, and Rotterdam has embraced water and climate management as a promising economic growth strategy. The city acts as a living laboratory for developing and implementing innovations in climate adaptation with inventions like water plazas and floating buildings.
 

Plans With Multiple Stakeholders

When planning is directed from a single perspective, like an oil company or a single agency within government, it risks excluding the interests and goals of other stakeholders, leading to the creation of plans that are not as effective as they could be. The participation of different levels of governance, sectors, businesses, and owners of private, at-risk properties is key to providing all the necessary components for a coastal management policy that reflects the viewpoints of every stakeholder group—local and national, public and private.

 

The U.S. state of Louisiana’s Coastal Master Plan, for example, provides a framework for multilevel governance and attempts to ensure that city plans achieve local goals as much as they conform to national environmental and development regulation. Created by a multidisciplinary commission, the Coastal Master Plan involves local, state, and national governments in the effort to restore Louisiana’s coast. The planning team in Louisiana consists of a variety of public- and private-sector experts, with focus groups for key businesses and industries, such as fisheries, to reflect the range of economic sectors. Such a multilevel governance framework ensures that no interests or goals are being excluded, facilitating the most effective and inclusive results.
 

Funding for Coastal Cities

Creating coastal cities that are resilient to the effects of sea-level rise requires a significant amount of costly redevelopment as well as the protection of natural areas. A lack of funding is often cited as the biggest barrier to effective coastal management, especially for newly emerging cities in the developing world. With many local economies facing budget cuts, pooling funds from multiple revenue sources is necessary to support the sustainable management of cities’ coastlines. Such funding sources can include state and national governments, international banks and organizations, civil society, and the private sector.

 

Louisiana’s Coastal Master Plan is again a good example of this approach. It outlines 145 projects that would cost $50 billion over fifty years and pools funding sources for them. Funds come from local sources, a state lockbox, and the federal RESTORE Act, which dedicates 80 percent of all Clean Water Act penalties and fines from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to environmental and economic recovery projects in the Gulf states. A lockbox guarantees that funds are directed to projects defined by the master plan.

 

Many developing countries in East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa do not have sufficient national resources to support local efforts in battling rising sea levels. Cities and states must instead look to public-private partnerships or global-local partnerships. The Strategic Climate Fund through the Climate Investment Funds provides financial assistance and World Bank expertise for coastal communities in Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean. Within those funds, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience provides investment and practical assistance to integrate climate risk and resilience into core development planning and implementation. Moroccan coastal communities will begin to use funds and expertise from this source to implement a four-year, $5.2 million integrated coastal management system to meet the challenges of managing the resources of the Mediterranean Sea for long-term sustainability.

 

In both developed and developing countries, civil society groups and private firms have played an integral role in providing additional technical support, funding, and the capacity to share best practices between continents. Nations should step up to foster such relationships if resources are lacking.
 

Support at All Levels

Both urban populations and the threat of rising sea levels are growing simultaneously. Coastal cities across the globe cannot afford to endure long debates to produce tangible results. Sea-level rise will act as a threat multiplier in rapidly urbanizing agglomerations, increasing political, economic, religious, demographic, and ethnic tensions by causing land and water to become scarcer.

 

Cities should develop customized, comprehensive coastal plans to protect the environment and their economic assets of both today and the future. Building on a zoning framework that includes hard constructs like storm-surge barriers as well as soft armors like wetland restoration, such plans identify the actors and lay out the steps for climate and economic protection.

 

On their own, few localities will be able to produce or afford comprehensive plans and the infrastructure investments they require. Locally led, nationally supported iterative plans are needed from Dhaka to New Orleans that can protect against looming threats. State, federal, and international governance must provide management, funds, and technical assistance to improve resource management and resilience at the coastal-city level. It is on this multidisciplinary, multilevel path that coastal cities will balance sea-level rise with other environmental, economic, social, cultural, and recreational objectives.

 

http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/05/16/protecting-coastal-cities-from-rising-seas/g3o0

No need for state flood levy: Swan





Wayne Swan

FEDERAL Treasurer Wayne Swan has questioned the need for a flood levy on Queenslanders, saying there is already $3 billion available for flood reconstruction work.

He said Queensland had benefitted from the Commonwealth's temporary flood levy, which Tony Abbott opposed, and there was sufficient funds remaining to do the work.

"We have provided Queensland with $6 billion to cover the major floods of recent years, $6 billion of which $3 billion sits in an account with the Queensland Government so I'm somewhat puzzled that they would now return around and seek to I pose an additional tax on Queenslanders for the floods when we have given such significant money to Queensland over recent years including $3 billion still sitting in an account, unspent," said Mr Swan.

"The people of Australia contributed some of that money as well through a temporary levy which Tony Abbott was against and now the Queensland Government is seeking to say almost retrospectively they want to raise more money which the Commonwealth Government has already given them $6 billion for."

www.CourierMail.com.au

Households hit with new flood levy

A levy is being considered to flood
proof infrastructure in Queensland.

Queenslanders could be hit with a new tax as the Newman Government considers putting a levy in next month's budget.

A spokesman for Local Government Minister David Crisafulli said the levy was being discussed by senior ministers to pay to flood proof infrastructure in vulnerable areas.

The details are still being ironed out with it not known if people in areas hit by floods over the past two years would be exempt from paying it.

The levy, which would place an extra charge on household bills, could be in place past the next election with the current proposal enacting it for up to five years.

www.BrisbaneTimes.com.au

Newman Government plans new levy to fund flood-proofing projects across Queensland

Gayndah water pump station is being rebuilt on higher
ground after being destroyed twice in two years but
 many more flood-proofing projects will need cash. 

QUEENSLAND households face a new levy to fund hundreds of expensive flood-proofing projects.

The Courier-Mail can reveal the Newman Government is preparing plans for a levy and a dedicated flood projects fund which will be unveiled in next month's State Budget.

About $1 billion would be raised over four or five years through the extra charge on common household bills, such as electricity, rates or water.

It would be used to fund new levees and dams and move vital infrastructure to higher ground to prevent taxpayers being hit repeatedly with repair bills after each disaster.

The news could not come at a worse time for households which are set to be stung with a $300 increase to the average annual electricity bill, $54 extra for bulk water costs in the southeast and a hike in the federal Medicare levy to pay for the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

Local Government Minister David Crisafulli yesterday confirmed a levy was being considered as the LNP administration grappled with how to fund infrastructure prone to flood.

"For a bit of short-term pain there could be generations of long-term gain," he said.

The controversial decision comes despite the LNP promising to lower the cost of living at last year's election and rallying against similar imposts, such as the ambulance levy, while they were in Opposition.

 



Premier Campbell Newman talks to locals
in Gayndah during the floods earlier this year.


However, the Department of Local Government has found itself inundated with funding applications for flood-proofing projects.

More than $950 million worth of proposals to protect infrastructure from future floods has been received from 48 councils.

However, only $80 million has been set aside in a joint state/federal fund for "betterment projects".

These include projects such as the Gayndah water pump station, the first project confirmed for funding, which will be rebuilt on higher ground after being destroyed twice in two years.

With a massive decline in forecast revenue set to nearly double next year's fiscal deficit to more than $8 billion, the Newman Government is not in a position to pay for the massive shortfall.

The Government also faces an unexpected cost of $725 million with the Gillard Government refusing to reimburse the state for council projects completed after the 2011 disasters which did not meet disaster payment guidelines.

Mr Crisafulli conceded households were struggling under the weight of bill increases but the community also did not want to repeatedly pay to replace the same flood-prone infrastructure.

"No matter which way we look at this I don't doubt for one moment that people will look at the cost and I understand and respect that," he said. "But the argument I put forward is we can save ourselves money in the future if we do this properly."

Mr Crisafulli said the levy would have its own fund away from consolidated revenue and an end date.

"I am not talking about something that goes into consolidated revenue or lasts in perpetuity," he said.

"I am talking about a levy that goes into a separate fund for disaster recovery, disaster betterment as part of that recovery and resilience to reduce your future payouts.

"To me it is something we should look at doing over a five-year period and collect about $1 billion. I think that would make a good start."

www.CourierMail.com.au

Ipswich flood measures extended for another year

 Ipswich City Council Planning and Development
Committee chairman Paul Tully. 

IPSWICH City Council is proposing to extend its temporary planning provisions for development in flood prone areas.

Ipswich City Council Planning and Development Committee chairman Paul Tully said the extension of the Temporary Local Planning Instrument had been sent to the State Government for adoption.

"These measures were originally brought in following the 2011 Flood Inquiry when it was recommended that improved planning guidelines for development could provide greater protection from future floods," Cr Tully said.

"We have had these measures in place since June 2011 and found they have worked well in providing new requirements for development approvals based on a new development flood level of the 1974 flood.

"We have extended this instrument for a further 12 months as that is the maximum period of time that we are permitted to do so under Queensland planning legislation.

"It is council's intention that key provisions in this planning instrument will be formally incorporated into future amendments to the Ipswich Planning Scheme.

"Damage caused by the 2011 and the 2013 floods to Ipswich homes and businesses was heartbreaking for so many residents.

"The early settlers who planned Ipswich did not know that they were building in areas that would be subject to flooding in the future.

"These measures go a long way to ensuring our communities will be better prepared for any future flood incidents."

www.QT.com.au

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